PRE-OPERATIONAL MODELLING IN THE SEAS OF EUROPE
The PROMISE Project

2. Work Content

(See section 6 for work schedule)

A. Assemblage of comprehensive dynamical and sedimentary observational data sets
Starting point
Partners in this project have access to and will make readily available the following data sets for development of models both within this programme and (where required to) in other related European programmes.

North Sea scale
ZISCH . . . . . . . (Jürgen Sündermann to add)
NORTH SEA PROJECT. Fifteen months (1988-89) of moorings and monthly surveys (each 3000 km long and 100 stations), dynamics, SPM, nutrients, metals, chlorophyll and oxygen.

Coastal
HOLDERNESS. (Rapidly eroding glacial till coasts north of the Humber on UK east coast). Six months (1994-95) of moorings, monthly surveys, H.F. radar and air-borne remote sensing. Dynamics (unique inshore wave data set), SPM and bathymetric surveys.

Instrumentation deployed: in-situ current meters, wave buoys/pressure cells, ABS, OBS and transmissometers, meteorological buoys, air-borne CASI sensor, H.F. Radar, X-band radar, coast-surf zone monitoring, STABLE. (See Technical Annex 1.10 for further details)

NORTH FRISIAN Wadden Sea . . . . . . . (participants to add)

DUTCH COAST . . . . . . . (participants to add)

SPANISH COAST . . . . . . . (participants to add)

B. Existing dynamical pre-operational models
B1. Storm and tidal propagation models currently in use amongst the partners
Shelf/North Sea scale:

POL (Dr R. A. Flather)
IfM
Delft
MUMM
HYDROMOD
GKSS
All of the above have been adapted to incorporate nested finer scale localised grids.

B2. Wave models
Versions of the WAM model operational include:

POL WAM4 (Dr J. Wolf)
IfM
GKSS
Delft
C.M.

B3. Turbulence Models

C. Rationalisation of existing models, development of interactions between models
POL, GKSS, K.U. Leuven, C.M., MUMM and Delft are all members of the WISE (Waves In Shallow Environments) group concerned with application of the above models in shallow water and the associated interactions.

The IfM has specialist experience in coupling current and turbulence models.

D. Sedimentation models
Random walk, Eulerian and semi-analytical sediment models have been developed by:

POL (J. P. McManus, 1994)
IfM
Delft
MUMM

E. Modelling
Simulations will be made extending over each of the three periods of the major observational exercises, namely:

  1. Holderness UK, Oct 1994-Jan 1995
  2. North Frisian Wadden Sea
  3. Dutch Coast
  4. Bilbao

These simulations will comprise:

  1. Output from meteorological models: atmospheric pressure, wind speed (all participants)
  2. Storm, tidal, wave, turbulence and suspended sediment models on North Sea scale (all participants)
  3. Sub-regional simulations (A. GB, B. D, C. NL, D. E)

Examinations will be made of the variability in 1. on 2. and of the variability in 2. on 3. These divergences will be assessed in relation to discrepancies against observed data.

Specifications for Operational Modelling
The degree of uncertainty produced in model output parameters as functions of uncertainty in model input parameters will be established, using variability from 6.2 as a basis for the ranges concerned.



Last updated: 10th May 1996. Please send comments to A.Lane@pol.ac.uk