Decadal variability of the northwest European shelf seas

The focus of this project is to quantify the variability of physical processes occurring in NW European shelf seas over the last 50 years and assess the likely changes in the next 50 years, with specific emphasis on strategic needs such as exploitation of biological and energy resources. The analysis of long runs of coupled physical-ecosystem models will be used to enhance our understanding of the processes affecting biological resources, map renewable energy sources and investigate impacts of climate change and exploitation of resources on coastal defences and habitats.

POL's modelling capabilities, especially the coupled physics-ecosystem model, make it ideally placed for investigating effects of changes in the natural environment. New opportunities exist for validation against the increasing amount of long term data sets. The computing power is available to perform long-term (multi-decadal) runs of coupled models and the availability of atmospheric model reanalyses provides forcing over time scales of 50 years. We will focus on the physical properties of the NW European Continental Shelf e.g. temperature, salinity, location of fronts, wave climate and transports and will work in close collaboration with PML, MBA and SAMS on the biological implications of these variables.

In conjunction with coastal and offshore engineers we can use models to investigate the effects on the physical environment of tidal stream turbines, offshore windfarms and wave energy devices. These may have both harmful and beneficial effects on habitats e.g. wave energy devices may also provide coastal protection and offshore structures can provide artificial reefs. Extraction of tidal energy may change the pattern of tidal propagation, at least locally, which may have implications for flushing of semi-enclosed systems such as estuaries and sea-lochs.

We aim to address key questions such as:

• What is the cause of interdecadal change in ecosystems?
• What are the likely responses to various management policies e.g. marine reserves, exploitation of renewable energy, fishing, aggregate dredging?
• What are the likely impacts of projected climate change on the distribution of marine resources?