Contributions to global biogeochemical budgets

In 2007-2009 the global representation of shelf seas is being developed through a global coastal-ocean hydrodynamics-ecosystem modelling system, based on POLCOMS-ERSEM (Theme 9), in the NERC QUEST-related e-science project GCOMS and in MarQUEST.

This will be followed by a 10-year hindcast and model verification (Theme 9, using key data sets, e.g. SES, OMEX). Furthermore, it is planned to:

• Develop appropriate representation of key shelf sea processes. For shelf-seas' biochemical contribution in a coarse-resolution ocean model, and parameterisations of net shelf effects where shelves are not resolved, we will experiment with model resolution and collaborate with PML and NOCS regarding (ecosystem) model complexity.
• Investigate key transport pathways of carbon off shelf seas in relation to the seasonal cycle of stratification and mixing (ventilation).
• Study sensitivity to widely varied atmospheric/oceanic forcing and model parameterizations, using a 50 yr hindcast (ERA40 forcing) and future climate scenarios (HadGEM forcing; Theme 9). The long runs will help to study long-term balances, e.g. net carbon or nutrient accumulation.
• Form a -50 to +50 year assessment of shelf seas' role in global carbon budgets, and estimate their contribution.

Modelled fluxes of carbon across the Hebrides shelf (Proctor et al. 2003).
This is a 2-D figure. Real shelf-seas behave in 3-D!