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Surge of 9 November 2007-11-09

9th November 2007

On the morning of 9 November 2007 the east coast of the UK experienced the worst storm surge for 20 years. At one point it was feared that the storm, and associated sea level rise, would be similar to the catastrophic surge of 31 January 1953. Fortunately, the winds moderated slightly and the surge levels along the east coast, from The Wash to The Thames, were about 20 cm lower than the worst forecasts.

A storm surge is the combined effect of atmospheric pressure and winds acting on the level of the sea. The surge plus the tidal height (from astronomical forces) gives rise to the total sea level - and then one has to allow for large waves on top of that. When spring tides coincide with a large surge then the consequences can be devastating. A storm surge can raise mean sea level by 2-3 m over an area of hundreds of square kilometres. On 31 January 1953 the North Sea suffered the worst storm surge on record. 307 lives were lost in Britain and over 1800 in the Netherlands (surges travel around the North Sea in an anticlockwise direction, as a giant wave).

View a movie of the storm surge   »

On this occasion the Environment Agency was provided with accurate, advance warning of the event, so that the public could be protected. The Storm Tide Forecasting Service (STFS) is a partnership between POL, the Environment Agency and the Met Office. It exists to deliver timely warnings of storm surges and thereby reduce the risk to life and property. NTSLF scientists have developed the tide and surge models used operationally for coastal flood warning. These models run four times a day on supercomputers at the Met Office, producing predictions up to two days ahead.

Our computer models (above) suggested a maximum surge of 2.5-3m at Sheerness, reducing to 1m there by the time of tidal high water, at noon on 9/11/07. Predictions for Sheerness are crucial since they inform the decision whether or not to close the Thames Barrier. As can be seen from the real time tide gauge data below, the model was accurate to within 10cm.

NTSLF scientists will continue to improve these computer models to provide even greater accuracy and pinpoint the most vulnerable areas. The same tools are used to investigate the behaviour of storm surges in a future climate, and to assess the risk to the UK from tsunamis.

Useful links

The National Tidal and Sea Level Facility (hosted here at POL) - [More].

Latest raw data from The British Oceanographic Data Centre - [More].

Latest information from the Environment Agency - [More].

The Met Office - [More].

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Notes

The Proudman Oceanographic (POL) scientific research focuses on oceanography encompassing global sea-levels and geodesy, numerical modelling of continental shelf seas and coastal sediment processes. This research alongside activities of surveying, monitoring, data management and forecasting provides strategic support for the wider mission of the Natural Environment Research Council.

As a public funded body it is part of our remit to inform the public of the science and research undertaken at the laboratory. Attending events like the 'Ocean Awareness Weekend' at the Blue Planet Aquarium offers the opportunity for our scientists to meet members of the public and present the laboratory's work.

The Natural Environment Research Council is one of the UK's eight Research Councils. It uses a budget of about £ 350m a year to fund and carry out impartial scientific research in the sciences of the environment. NERC trains the next generation of independent environmental scientists. It is addressing some of the key questions facing mankind, such as global warming, renewable energy and sustainable economic development.