ABSTRACT
With numerical models being increasingly used in management decisions affecting the marine environment, quantification of the variability expected from model results, both between different models and compared to nature, is important. This project sets out a programme of study directed at a quantification of variability for three-dimensional hydrodynamic advection-dispersion models used in European Seas.
The specific objectives of the project are:
- a) To establish measurements of variability in terms of cost functions;
- b) To carry out sensitivity studies on models by defining input functions and measuring the response of the models to controlled variation of these functions;
- c) To provide an assessment of the natural spatial and seasonal variability of the marine system;
- d) To assess model spatial and seasonal variability against the natural variability;
- e) To carry out a detailed assessment of model variability by direct comparison with suitable observations.
The cost functions (a) will provide the measure of variation. The sensitivity studies (b) will provide a measure of expected model variability. Objectives (c) and (d) will provide measures of the actual variability, and (e) will provide a detailed assessment of the variability.
Within the study, the limitations applied will be:
- a) Salinity and temperature will be the variables assessed in (c) and (d), using data spanning at least 10 years;
- b) The domain of study will be the southern North Sea (to 56N);
- c) One year (1988/89) will be the focus for direct model-data intercomparison, taking advantage of the availability of UK North Sea Project data.
Objectives and Methodology